Read further · read 78.9% · ciphertext-only break · partial

Manuel Durón to W. Olliphant, Mexico City, 20 May 1911

A coded telegram of 20 May 1911, the eve of the Treaty of Ciudad Juárez, listed with no decipherment, from Manuel Durón in Mexico City to W. Olliphant, the alias of Federico González Garza at El Paso. Its 107 signs are a simple shift of a 29-sign Spanish alphabet (with ch, ll, ñ and w), recovered from the ciphertext alone: one shift of 166 candidates turns it into Spanish. It warns Madero to be on his guard against a licenciado Reyes Retana and his companions, who have left for El Paso. Read in part (15 of 19 words sure); the key is not validated, the text is too short.

Date
1911
Read now
78.9% of the cipher tokens give sense
Write-up
duron1911.html
Files
targets/duron1911
Open gaps
too short to break ×2needs the archive ×2

Hand this page to your AI agent

Give your agent (Claude, ChatGPT or any assistant that can open web pages) this address and ask it to do the task on the page:

https://dbourdeau.github.io/cyphersolver/further/duron1911.html

Or copy the block below into the chat. It is the whole task: the reading, every open gap, what has been tried, the steps, and how to report back.

TASK: take a partial decipherment further: Manuel Durón to W. Olliphant, Mexico City, 20 May 1911
This page: https://dbourdeau.github.io/cyphersolver/further/duron1911.html

You are helping a public research project finish reading historical cipher letters. This one is read in part:
the key works, but some pieces are still open. Your job is to close one or more of the open gaps below.

THE READING
  Write-up:   https://dbourdeau.github.io/cyphersolver/duron1911.html (read it first: how the text was read, the key, the reading)
  Date:       1911
  Outcome:    ciphertext-only break · partial
  Read now:   78.9% of the deciphered cipher tokens give sense (pieces below may be untouched)
  Files:      https://github.com/dbourdeau/cyphersolver/tree/main/targets/duron1911 (NOTES.md, key, transcription, reading, scripts)

OPEN GAPS (from NOTES.md, "## Remaining gaps")
  1. [too-short: needs a new source] Validation of the key by a held-out test - blocker: too-short; 107 signs, and a held-out measure needs 300 letters. A second telegram in this key, or a period decipherment, would validate it; none is known among the 136 coded pieces of the fonds harvested.
  2. [needs-physical-access: needs a new source] The first name "danlel" ({Daniel}) - blocker: needs-physical-access; one wrong sign, and the sister telegram has Ismael. The telegraph form or a period source would settle it.
  3. [too-short: needs a new source] "dak" after "particípamelo a la" - blocker: too-short; three signs, perhaps a transmission error.
  4. [needs-physical-access: needs a new source] A human palaeographer's check of the transcription against the CEHM image - blocker: needs-physical-access; the integration check compared all 24 typed groups with the public image (24 of 24 agree), but no human reader has.

ALREADY TRIED (from NOTES.md, "## Escalation")
  [x] siblings: the dossier CMXV.18.1777 opened (2-6 Elisa, a different telegram; 3-6 a notice of non-delivery; 4-6 and 5-6 Herrera Moreno); none is a decipherment of 1-6
  [x] clear-pages: no gloss on the sheet; the typed list of period decipherments CMXV.18.1795.1 (45 pp., OCR) searched: on 20 May only Elisa, Herrera Moreno x2 and Miranda/Herrera Moreno; no "Retana" outside Elisa
  [x] known-keys: every key of the fonds as is (Elisa +-10, the .tsv cards and the tables of CMXV.16.1557.1 incl. the Clave G.A.), one preregistered run: none applies
  [x] print: no edition of this telegram known; Narváez 2011 (Documenta & Instrumenta 9, full text, checked for catalogue 1462) has nothing on it; Narváez 2019 (SRE book, ch. VII-VIII) not available to the contributor, so it could not be checked
  [x] key-rebuild: free substitution anneal, then every shift on six alphabets: one key only (29 signs, +22); two methods on the same 107 signs, not two tests
  [x] retry: the doubtful groups (danlel, ladak, the spacing of VJLLL LYJXY, the four cipher n) retried against the key and the sense, and regraded

STEPS
0. Set up. If you can run a shell, fork and clone the repository and work inside it:
     git clone https://github.com/dbourdeau/cyphersolver.git
   Then read, in this order: CONTRIBUTING.md (how a contribution is sent and credited); README.md, sections
   "Repository layout" and "Conventions" (how readings are measured and named); targets/duron1911/NOTES.md in full, and the
   key, transcription and reading files it names; lang/README.md (shared language models).
   Work in targets/duron1911/. Add your findings to NOTES.md under a dated heading without rewriting what is there, and
   update the "## Remaining gaps" line of every gap you close. Keep WORKLOG.md there: one dated line per step
   (hypothesis, value tried, solver run, crib, control), failures included. Do not edit docs/ (the site is generated).
   If you cannot run a shell, fetch the files from the links above and keep your work in files you send with the issue.
1. Pick a gap. Start with the ones marked "doable now" (open-codes, not-attempted, left-open): the images and the key
   are online, so they need only work. A gap marked "needs a new source" (no-key-material, too-short, illegible,
   needs-physical-access) can be closed only by something new: a key
   or a deciphered sibling found elsewhere, a better image, a printed edition or calendar, a photograph from the archive.
   For those, search for that material first, and say where you looked even when you find nothing.
2. Start from the existing key and transcription in the folder. Do not rebuild the key from scratch, and do not
   re-read parts that are already read unless you find an error in them.
3. For a code group or sign value: list every place the group occurs, show how each reads with the value you propose,
   and say what still does not fit. For a passage: re-read it at the image and give the folio and line. For a missing
   letter or leaf: say where it is held and how it can be reached.
4. Measure again. Apply the key to the whole text, write the reading file, and count the share of cipher tokens that
   give sense (not an estimate). The reading is "complete" only when (1) at least 95% of its cipher tokens give sense;
   (2) no gap is left untried; (3) every letter in it is covered; (4) what stays open is scattered code groups or names,
   or pieces blocked from outside. Otherwise it stays "partial": say which gaps are still open and why.
5. Be honest. Mark every uncertain word with [?], leave unread groups as their numbers or signs, and never fill a gap
   with a plausible guess. A gap retried and still open, with what was ruled out, is worth reporting.

REPORT BACK
With a clone: open a pull request with your changes to targets/duron1911/. Say in the description which gaps you worked on,
  the share read before and after, and how you want to be credited (name, initials or handle, and a link).
Without one: open an issue: https://github.com/dbourdeau/cyphersolver/issues/new?template=further-reading.yml&title=Further+reading%3A+duron1911&page=duron1911.html
  Give the write-up, the gap you worked on (its line in Remaining gaps, or the code group, folio and line), what you
  propose, the evidence (every occurrence, the images or sources), the share read before and after, your step log,
  and the tools and AI model you used.
If you cannot open issues or pull requests, write this report for your human to send. Credit goes to the person who sends it.

Open gaps

gold can be done now: the images and the key are online, it needs only work. grey needs a new source first: a key, a better scan, an edition or the archive.

Already tried

Send a result

One closed gap counts: a code group valued, a passage re-read, a key or clear copy found elsewhere. It is credited to you on the write-up.

Open a further-reading issueOther kinds of reportHow credit works← All partial readings